The Winding Glass

The coming war on aquaculture

Some recent items in our news show that there is a gathering movement within the environmental community to paint aquaculture as irresponsible, in the same way that wild fisheries were declared depleted in the 1990's.

Now that the public has accepted that many wild fisheries are totally sustainable it seems that less attention is being paid to wild fisheries by environmental campaigns, with the exception of some glaring examples of overfishing, such as tuna.

The basic developments in our news recently that make me think a new war on aquaculture is developing are:

1) Greenpeace's recent report on aquaculture, which is receiving a lot of media coverage.

2) the upcoming release of a pew funded study showing that the presence of fish farms cuts the population of wild salmon in rivers where they exist,

3) WWF's refusal to participate in the aquaculture certification programs developed by the GAA, and supported by major buyers. By staying outside of this framework, the WWF appears to be positioning itself to argue that non-WWF approved aquaculture is not sustainable.

What is significant here is that for many years there have been concerted and well funded campaigns against certain types of aquaculture -- with farmed salmon being the most visible. This fight was partly due to the fact that some in the seafood industry in Alaska are all to happy to demonize farmed salmon for competitive market reasons -- so they have given the anti-farmed salmon campaign legitimacy it would not have otherwise.

Shrimp farmers have faced criticism over mangroves, even though environmental practices for shrimp farming have improved dramatically in the past 25 years. Similar to salmon, it is the campaign of the domestic US shrimp producers that is giving attacks on farmed shrimp more legitimacy than they would otherwise have.

Now aquaculture opponents are looking at the use of fish meal, despite the fact that some of the reduction fisheries are among the best managed and most sustainable fisheries in the world.

So, we will write more about this in the coming weeks -- but there is a concerted attack on all aquaculture that is coming together and will begin to reverberate in the media. If consumers become fearful of aquaculture fish, it will hurt the trend towards increased seafood consumption, which so far has been driven by aquaculture species.

New demand for seafood is reshaping global markets

Japan’s seafood imports are at a 15 year low. Meanwhile, for many species, from herring and mackerel to coldwater shrimp, Russian and Eastern European countries are emerging as major centers of consumption.

And of course, China is in a class by itself.

Seafood trading and consumption patterns, which previously had been stable, are being upended by the growth of new centers of demand. In some cases, this is pushing traditional buyers out of the market.

A good example is herring and salmon roe. This used to be a product that primarily went to Japan. Prices were set based on negotiations between Japanese importers and producers in Norway, Alaska, and Canada. No More. Now there are multiple centers of demand, and the question of price, and where supplies will flow, is much more volatile, depending on which market will pay the most for the limited wild supply. We will have a story Monday on how Russian buyers of Ikura (salmon roe) will be flooding the Boston Seafood Show this month.

Same thing is happening with other wild caught fish, from cod to coldwater shrimp.

What this means is that we have reached a new stage in the sale and trading of wild caught seafood. With a limited supply, and demand greater than supply for many species, sellers have been willing to abandon traditional markets in favor of new customers.

IN the short term, this means higher prices. IN the long term, it means more volatility. The reason is that shifting economic fortunes, consumer tastes, or supply shortages can create drastic swings in demand.

A case in point in China. A few years ago, a shortage of shrimp in China sparked a huge demand for shell on northern shrimp -- and imports shot up over 50,000 tons, and prices rose. Then came the trade barriers to vannamei, which suddenly was cheaper across China, and where 80% of the consumption was already based on domestic white shrimp. The result: two years later, demand drops to about 15,000 tons, and producers are left scrambling for new markets.

This type of whipsaw demand for wild caught species is likely to become the norm, and is a function of the growing demand for seafood meeting the limits of wild caught production.